Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
